Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 2.216590 2.575970 2.973753 3.446531 3.993014 4.604768 5.341545
2026-02-01 1.513273 1.954862 2.495765 3.206409 4.115076 5.237801 6.730626
2026-02-08 1.129839 1.591991 2.207080 3.084179 4.301782 5.931724 8.279850
2026-02-15 0.905035 1.372190 2.038938 3.057470 4.572250 6.740406 10.079893
2026-02-22 0.781236 1.262114 1.991199 3.173174 5.038487 7.866441 12.479371
2026-03-01 0.657074 1.123785 1.870778 3.147986 5.273309 8.664979 14.487374
2026-03-08 0.555452 1.000750 1.749564 3.093497 5.440271 9.363713 16.418177
2026-03-15 0.483783 0.914474 1.672424 3.094782 5.690844 10.220107 18.716438
2026-03-22 0.459412 0.907460 1.729480 3.336281 6.389873 11.928521 22.727257
2026-03-29 0.415335 0.855593 1.696045 3.403972 6.776921 13.124959 25.963705
2026-04-05 0.376265 0.806655 1.659804 3.458577 7.142510 14.322035 29.353621
2026-04-12 0.336250 0.749008 1.597301 3.450071 7.378959 15.295468 32.426718
2026-04-19 0.297525 0.689550 1.525897 3.420405 7.584670 16.268752 35.711221
2026-04-26 0.249819 0.602540 1.383811 3.219536 7.402475 16.430745 37.343377
2026-05-03 0.216162 0.541776 1.289518 3.109375 7.401934 16.977382 39.892269
2026-05-10 0.193188 0.502327 1.237170 3.086767 7.595697 17.974853 43.596031
2026-05-17 0.181619 0.488973 1.243823 3.205110 8.137447 19.832645 49.559172
2026-05-24 0.163346 0.455191 1.195466 3.180203 8.327153 20.892797 53.764988
2026-05-31 0.145851 0.420352 1.138920 3.125347 8.433107 21.764812 57.631649
2026-06-07 0.133045 0.396090 1.105881 3.126707 8.683899 23.028145 62.670222
2026-06-14 0.131644 0.403915 1.159593 3.370677 9.615288 26.146210 72.981715
2026-06-21 0.123194 0.389666 1.150558 3.439062 10.078049 28.105078 80.471826
2026-06-28 0.115021 0.374820 1.137558 3.494223 10.512430 30.047333 88.194208